(The Interpreter/Lowy Institute)-- Donald Trump’s retreat from the Paris Agreement was predictable. Yet we can’t overstate its potential impact.
As a close follower of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, ot UNFCCC, the UN structure through which the Paris accord was negotiated, I believe we can best understand the impact of this decision by looking into the Pacific.
Representing both the frontline of climate change’s devastating consequences, and the moral and scientific leadership of the UNFCCC, Pacific island leaders and advocates have the most at stake in the success of the Paris deal and have intimate knowledge of the accords.
Hence, as well articulated in The Interpreter by Tarcisius Kabutaulaka and Oliver Sinclair, Trump’s retreat will likely lead to further rifts in Pacific-U.S. relations, foster distrust and cost America influence in the region.
But what are Pacific island leaders saying about Trump’s retreat from Paris? Has the rift begun?
It’s best to listen to Pacific leaders themselves to appreciate how central climate change is to their geopolitical attitudes and approaches.
In Palau, President Surangel Whipps Jr. made comments about the U.S. influence on global climate action within the first days of Trump’s inauguration. Whipps went further, inviting Trump to go snorkelling to see the impacts of climate change on the reefs of his archipelago country. He said this would be a “fantastic opportunity” to “see the islands that are disappearing because of sea level rise, see the taro swamps that are being invaded."
In Papua New Guinea, Prime Minister James Marape said he was “greatly concerned” by Trump's decision to pull out of the Paris Agreement, calling it “totally irresponsible” and “morally wrong."
“I ask President Trump to reconsider his decision to withdraw USA from the Paris Agreement,” Marape said, noting “The United States is the second biggest holder of carbon footprint, only after China.” He said after PNG has been working to “revitalize” its relationship with the United States, which includes a recent security deal, the decision was “very discouraging."
It should be noted that PNG confusingly pulled out of the UNFCCC’s COP29 conference last year, citing frustration with progress as its reason for not participating.
In the Cook Islands, leaders and advocates have spoken in harmony against this decision to pull out of Paris – particularly in reference to how this decision will impact access to climate funding.
Cook Islands’ Climate Change director Wayne King underscored how important the U.S. pledge of US$3 billion was to the Green Climate Fund for developing countries. Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown similarly highlighted that his country has relied on the Green Climate Fund to implement crucial adaptation projects, so will need to search for more global climate funding.
“We call on the global community to step up and fill any funding gaps left by the U.S. withdrawal,” Brown said, pledging his “government will proactively seek alternative financing mechanisms through strengthened cooperation with multilateral organizations and development partners."
The Cook Islands spat with New Zealand over a prospective deal with China might be a sign of things to follow.
In Samoa too, Prime Minister Fiame Naomi Mataʻafa told The Guardian that although Trump’s decision was “not surprising … nevertheless, it is very disappointing”. She said, “We look to the US as a global leader, but they seem to not recognize this global issue, not only for Samoa but for the Pacific.”
Vanuatu’s Attorney-General Arnold Loughman, well-known for leading Vanuatu’s landmark and ongoing International Court of Justice climate case, said the US decision to withdraw from Paris is an “undeniable setback” for global climate action, potentially setting a “troubling precedent.”
Loughman told BenarNews: “The Paris Agreement remains key to the world’s efforts to combat climate change and respond to its effects, and the participation of major economies like the U.S. is crucial. Ultimately, the whole world stands to lose if the international legal framework is allowed to erode.”
This commentary from the Pacific strikes a different tone to the congratulations
Pacific leaders gave Trump after his November election. But this withdrawal, alongside the U.S. freeze on foreign aid, could upend millions of lives in the Pacific.
Climate change is thus not a special interest of Pacific Islanders, but a core pillar of foreign policy across the region. It is a good lesson to learn for countries, such as Australia, that are aiming to maintain or even grow influence in the Pacific.
Isabelle Zhu-Maguire is a PhD student at the Australian National University. She was previously a project coordinator at the Monash Sustainable Development Institute and has conducted extensive research into the experiences of women in Afghanistan and their perspectives and realities living through conflict, oppression and climate change.
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