I try not to make predictions or even pronouncements, but the world is in the midst of the next Cold War. So what better way to wage a cold war than with soft power? And what better way to exercise soft power than helping out in a disaster?
By now we all know that on the evening of Dec. 16, 2024, the big one hit Vanuatu. The big one being a 7.3 earthquake that rocked the island, flattening buildings in a region whose architecture is best known for cinder blocks and termite dust.
As of this writing, the death toll was 14. The airport and seaport were damaged, hampering relief efforts. Internet cables were severed. Hospitals have been overwhelmed. But from the basic facts of covering disaster, the reporting turned odd.
The quake destroyed two reservoirs and eliminated drinking water supplies. Almost immediately, UNICEF reported that the rates of children with diarrhea surged in the immediate aftermath, the result of tainted water.
Apparently, UNICEF’s highest priority following a natural disaster is biostatistics.
Not to be outdone, Surfer magazine was distraught over reports that the beach-adjacent surf village of Pango was badly damaged. Because not being able to hang ten is what really matters when death surrounds you.
More curious was The New York Times reporting that the U.S. embassy was closed due to heavy damage. The New York Times reporting on Vanuatu is curious enough by itself, but hold that thought while we look at something half a world away.
The same week of the Vanuatu quake, the Associated Press reported that the West African nations of Chad and Senegal ended ties with France’s military, significant because they join Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, all former French colonies, in rejecting an already waning French influence in Africa. These military partnerships, which largely sprang up in the aftermath of the 2015 terrorist attacks across Paris, countered Al-Qaeda-linked violent extremism south of the Sahara.
While, to paraphrase the AP, the countries seek an ongoing dialogue to redefine their sovereignty in the face of the region’s role in the history of slavery and World War II-era massacres at the hands of colonial overlords —just to name two points of contention—we already know the real reason: China.
The intangible cultural property of the baguette isn’t enough to remove French colonial baggage when China, and in this case Russia and Turkey, don’t have said baggage.
Which brings us back to Vanuatu. The U.S. opened its embassy in the capital of Port Vila this past July. We all know why: China. As part of its latest attempt to counter Chinese influence in the Pacific, the U.S. has pushed to open embassies and create a presence in far-flung regions that previously were not worthy of anything other than a dive vacation.
China has had an embassy in Vanuatu since 1989.
As I write this, Australia and New Zealand are providing the most assistance to Vanuatu. It makes sense. They’re closest and have the longest relationship with the nation.
Disaster response is the perfect exercise of soft power. You can get a master’s degree in it, after all. The putting aside of differences to treat the sick and rescue the trapped. Military helicopters bringing food, not munitions. Winning hearts and minds. But a soft power beachhead lays the pavement for a hard power landing.
Under the best of circumstances, safe drinking water is in short supply throughout the Blue Continent. Disaster preparation guides typically advise stockpiling a three-to-five-day supply of drinking water. In Truuk Lagoon, for instance, 1,800 miles distant, under normal conditions there’s not a three-to-five-day supply.
Overwhelmed hospitals? Compared to what? A sea-level causeway divides Palau’s population in Koror from its hospital. A bad accident can shut down the only road to medical care, not to mention what would happen if a storm surge swamped the pavement. The medical capacity of most nations in the region are is hardly enough to meet the needs of its population. Where to go for medical treatment in the Pacific? Manila and Taipei come to mind.
I don’t think I even need to mention infrastructure.
We’ll see who scores the most in the soft power stampede for influence. Vanuatu may prove to be the latest front, but the race for influence by showing up and doing something is just beginning.
Gabriel McCoard is an attorney who previously worked in Palau and Chuuk State. Send feedback to gabrieljmccoard@hotmail.com
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