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Pre-election ruminations



Live From Saipan By Zaldy Dandan

   “If it’s any comfort, we should remind ourselves of the purpose of voting. We don’t vote to elect great persons to office. They’re not that great. We vote to throw the bastards out.”

— From “Don’t Vote: It Just Encourages the Bastards” by P.J. O’Rourke

 

   “Of course, one may argue, citizens in a democracy can always ‘throw the rascals out’ at the next election. Here in the United States, we have been flinging rascals hither and yon for more than two centuries. But what do we have to show for it?”

— From “Against Leviathan” by Robert Higgs

 

Saipan — Here is the lay of the CNMI political land as of mid-October, about 22 days before voters choose a new set of lawmakers and other officials. (The early voting period started on Oct. 29.)


But first, let me point out that this midterm election is, quite possibly, the most unexciting in CNMI history. The only interesting race is the five-way delegate election, the result of which will answer the following question: Can someone beat the candidate backed by the powers-that-be, who are counting on their supporters — many of whom are employed by the CNMI’s largest employer, the government — to toe the line?


CNMI voters will also elect three senators, 20 members of the House of Representatives, nine (nonpartisan) municipal council members, and three (nonpartisan) Board of Education members. They will likewise decide on whether to retain a Superior Court judge.


In the CNMI, 2022 was not a good year, but 2023 was worse, and 2024 is most likely the worst since 2020, the year of Covid.


In a normal midterm election year, most of the incumbents ought to be vulnerable and would be punished in the polls. But that presupposes the existence of a strong and credible opposition. Today in the CNMI, there is no such thing. What passes for the opposition remains demoralized and in disarray.


In the House races, in particular, there are not a lot of candidates running against incumbents, many of whom supported the administration-backed tax-hike measures that are as popular as a kick in the groin.


That alone — proposing tax hikes in this economy — is a ready-made issue for those who want to challenge incumbent lawmakers. But then again, seeking elective office this year — to shift metaphors — is like hitching a ride on a car running on two flat tires. Even if you win, what then?


The next legislature will more likely remain under the control of pro-administration lawmakers. Many of them have no inclination to reduce the costs of big government, which continues to miss its revenue projections. As one of the pro-administration lawmakers has put it, the choice before them is to either raise taxes or lay off government employees — who are voters.


Never mind if higher tax rates do not necessarily result in higher tax collection.


For the government, projecting revenue is all, and is as good as actual cash. The government budget is based on projections — that is, estimates. Tax-hike measures will allow the administration to project “additional” revenue and set the government’s spending levels accordingly. For example, a $114 million annual budget means that the government hopes to bring in $114 million this fiscal year, so it will allocate the same amount for spending, regardless of actual collections.


That’s Government Budget 101.


Households can’t spend money they don’t have. Businesses adhering to the government's “accounting principles” will face bankruptcy or charges of fraud. Government, however, to quote Kevin Williamson, is the Immortal Corporation. “You’ll never see a capitol building with a 'going out of business' sign hanging out front — even genuinely bankrupt, undeniably insolvent regimes…for the most part go on about their business, even after defaulting on their financial obligations.”


As for political parties in the CNMI, no matter what they call themselves (Republican, Democrat, Independent), there are only two of them “since ever since”: the Ins and the Outs. Right now, the Ins are former Republicans allied with Democrats.


The Outs are Republicans. Not many want to be known as a Democrat or a Republican. Many prefer to be “Independents,” like the governor and the lieutenant governor, who are both former Republicans. They are among the most seasoned politicians in the CNMI, and yet they are at the helm of the most economically oblivious administration this territory has ever seen since the Trust Territory era.


This administration has shunned what used to be the CNMI’s second largest tourism market (China) in favor of begging the feds. This is the closest thing to “voodoo economics” I’ve witnessed in 30 years of covering the CNMI government.


After almost two years of the governor’s “pivot,” a more clear-headed leadership would, by now, make the necessary adjustments, and resume promoting the CNMI in China while pursuing other pro-growth measures. But no. The governor, while acknowledging the dismal consequences of his policy, prefers to double down on it. He assures us that in two years, things will get better.


That’s right. His administration can’t meet its quarterly revenue projections, but he can forecast events two years from now.


In the meantime, he wants us to pay higher taxes and fees.


In politics, who advocates such policies? Mostly ideologues, who are always willing to inconvenience us today in return for a better tomorrow…that never comes. They like breaking eggs to make an omelet. But they don’t know how to make an omelet, so their “solution” is to break more eggs.


Which brings us to one of the primary reasons for the seeming disinterest of many CNMI voters today. They have realized that they can also vote with their feet.

  

Zaldy Dandan is editor of the CNMI’s oldest newspaper, Marianas Variety. His fourth book, “If He Isn’t Insane Then He Should Be: Stories & Poems from Saipan,” is available on amazon.com/.




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