By James Pearce
The Cook Islands and American Samoa have the world’s fastest two declining populations, according to the most recent data.
The Federated States of Micronesia is also among the top 10 nations bleeding its population, with CNMI not far behind. The United States government's World Factbook, compiled by the Central Intelligence Agency, estimates that 40 countries now have shrinking populations.
Some are experiencing a decline of 1 percent a year. According to the World Factbook, the Cook Islands’ population is thought to be shrinking by 2.24 percent every year. American Samoa’s is declining by 1.54 percent a year, whereas FSM’s shrunk by 0.73 percent.
The Northern Mariana Islands has also seen a population decline of 0.34 percent, meaning it lost as much of its population as Tonga – whose population is more than double the size.
Out of all the Pacific island nations, Niue’s dipped the least at 0.03 percent
Meanwhile, the rest of the Pacific is seeing a population increase.
Guam’s population is thought to have grown by 0.11 percent since last year, the Marshall Islands, 1.26 percent; Kiribati, 1 percent; Fiji, 1 percent; Tuvalu, 0.78 percent; French Polynesia, 0.66 percent; Samoa, 0.65 percent; Nauru, 0.39 percent; and Palau, 0.38 percent.
The biggest population growth in the Pacific was in Papua New Guinea (2.26), the Solomon Islands (1.65) and Vanuatu (1.55).
Several factors can explain the decrease, with the usual suspects of low immigration and high emigration playing their role.
ADVERTISEMENT
Persistently low fertility is another. Countries with sharp population declines often combine these three factors, along with relatively older populations.
More rural countries are also more affected, as they are unable to replenish their populations faster.
By contrast, nations with more urban centers, higher economic activity, immigration and Foreign Direct Investment all experience population growth.
Eastern Europe and East Asia were the fastest declining regions of the world, where all of these problems are particularly exacerbated.
Though they are present in the Pacific, the overall population is substantially lower, meaning the impact is smaller.
Moreover, each country is affected very differently. Emigration is the best example to cite. The cost of travel is much more expensive following the pandemic, making emigration more out of reach for many.
The Marshall Islands is a particularly useful example in this regard. The cheapest flights to Hawaii now start around the $2,000 mark – the same price for a flight from Honolulu to Istanbul, with a layover.
Getting to the mainland is even costlier, especially considering that the average Marshall Islands salary is around $16,000 a year.
It also works the other way. Pacific countries are much further away, have lower salaries and fewer facilities. They are, therefore, less desirable to foreigners. The Pacific struggles to attract highly skilled migrants for this reason, and seasonal workers never seem to want to stay.
In contrast, an American Samoan, Cook Islander or Micronesian can earn far more in New Zealand or the U.S. mainland – and take their families with them fairly easily, not needing visas or work permits. All they need is a ticket.
Some Pacific countries also tend to have larger families than others, whereas Papua New Guinea is bigger – and can sustain a larger population on its territory.
The impact of remittances from abroad is also curious.
In Central Asia for instance, almost half of Tajikistan’s GDP is based on remittances mostly from Russia.
Yet, Russia’s population has been declining since the 1980s and Tajikistan’s has been growing in recent years. However, in The Cook Islands, foreign remittances make up just 5 percent of its overall GDP. Perhaps they are not sending enough home to encourage population growth.
Subscribe to
our digital
monthly edition
Comentarios