Navigating the shared challenges of climate change, geostrategic tensions, political upheaval, disaster recovery and decolonization plus a 50th birthday party
By Tess Newton Cain
(BenarNews) -- Vanuatu’s devastating earthquake and dramatic political developments in Tonga and New Caledonia at the end of 2024 set the tone for the coming year in the Pacific.
The incoming Trump administration adds another level of uncertainty, ranging from the geostrategic competition with China and the region’s resulting militarization to the U.S. response to climate change. And decolonization for a number of territories in the Pacific will remain in focus as the region’s largest country celebrates its 50th anniversary of independence.
The deadly 7.3 earthquake that struck Port Vila on Dec. 17 has left Vanuatu reeling. As the country moves from response to recovery, the full impact of the damage will come to light. The economic hit will be significant, with some businesses announcing that they will not open until well into the New Year or later. Amid the physical carnage, there’s Vanuatu’s political turmoil, with a snap general election triggered in November before the disaster struck to go ahead on Jan. 16.
On Christmas Eve, a new prime minister was elected in Tonga. ‘Aisake Valu Eke is a veteran politician, who previously served as minister of finance. He succeeded Siaosi Sovaleni, who resigned suddenly after a prolonged period of tension between his office and the Tongan royal family. Eke takes the reins as Tonga heads towards national elections, due before the end of November. He will likely want to keep things stable and low-key between now and then.
In New Caledonia, the resignation of the Calédonie Ensemble party on Christmas Eve led to the fall of the French territory’s government. After last year’s violence and civil disorder, which crippled the economy but stopped a controversial electoral reform, the political turmoil jeopardizes about US$77 million (75 million euro) of a US$237 million recovery funding package from France.
In addition, and given the fall of the Barnier government in Paris, attempts to reach a workable political settlement in New Caledonia are likely to be severely hampered, including any further movement to secure independence. In France’s other Pacific territory, the government of French Polynesia is expected to step up its campaign for decolonization from the European power.
Possibly the biggest party in the Pacific in 2025 will be the 50th anniversary of Papua New Guinea’s independence from Australia, accompanied hopefully by some reflection and action about the country’s future. Eagerly awaited also will be the data from the country’s flawed census last year, due for release on the same day - Sept. 16. But the celebrations will also serve as a reminder of unfinished self-determination business, with its Autonomous Region of Bougainville preparing for their independence declaration in the next two years.
The shadow of geopolitics looms large in the Pacific islands region. There is no reason to think that will change this year.
A significant unknown is how the incoming Trump administration will alter policy and funding settings, if at all. The current (re)engagement by the U.S. in the region started with Trump during his first incumbency. His 2019 meeting with the then leaders of the compact states - Federated States of Micronesia, Palau, Republic of Marshall Islands - at the White House was a pivotal moment. Under Biden, billions of dollars have been committed to securitize the region in response to China. This year, we expect to see U.S. marines start to transfer in number from Okinawa to Guam.
However, given Trump’s history and rhetoric when it comes to climate change, there is some concern about how reliable an ally the U.S. will be when it comes to this vital security challenge for the region. The last time Trump entered the White House, he withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement and he is widely expected to do the same again this time around.
In addition to polls in Tonga and Vanuatu, elections will be held in the Federated States of Micronesia, Nauru, New Caledonia and for the Autonomous Bougainville Government.
There will also be a federal election in Australia, the biggest aid donor in the Pacific, and a change in government will almost certainly have impacts in the region. Given the sway that the national security community has on both sides of Australian politics, the centrality of Pacific engagement to foreign policy, particularly in response to China, is unlikely to change.
How that manifests could look quite different under a conservative Liberal/National party government. The most likely change is in climate policy, including an avowed commitment to invest in nuclear power. A refusal to shift away from fossil fuels or commit to enhanced finance for adaptation by a new administration could reignite tensions within the Pacific Islands Forum that have, to some extent, been quietened under Labor’s Albanese government. Who is in government could also impact on the bid to host COP31 in 2026, with a decision between candidates Turkey and Australia not due until June, after the poll.
Pacific leaders and advocates face a systemic challenge regarding climate change. With the rise in conflict and geopolitical competition, the global focus on the climate crisis has weakened. The prevailing sense of disappointment over COP29 last year is likely to continue as partners’ engagement becomes increasingly securitized.
A major global event for this year is the Oceans Summit which will be held in Nice, France, in June. This is a critical forum for Pacific countries to take their climate diplomacy to a new level and attack the problem at its core. In 2023, the G20 countries were responsible for 76 percent of global emissions. By capitalizing on the geopolitical moment, the Pacific could nudge the key players to greater ambition.
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Several G20 countries are seeking to expand and deepen their influence in the region alongside the five largest emitters - China, U.S., India, Russia, and Japan - all of whom have strategic interests in the Pacific. Given the increasingly transactional nature of Pacific engagement, 2025 should present an opportunity for Pacific governments to leverage their geostrategic capital in ways that will address human security for their peoples.
Tess Newton Cain is a Principal Consultant at Sustineo P/L and adjunct Associate Professor at the Griffith Asia Institute. She is a former lecturer at the University of the South Pacific and has over 25 years of experience working in the Pacific islands region. The views expressed here are hers, not those of BenarNews/RFA.
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