Christmas season is upon us. Most of us spend some time wondering what to put under the Christmas tree and how to keep that information from the wee ones. Maintaining the mystery of Christmas and Christmas gifts creates the anxiety that we enjoy. The wee ones also enjoy this type of joyful anxiety in anticipatory glee.
At the risk of demeaning ourselves, we in the Pacific islands—especially the territories and the freely associated states— are the wee ones. But this Christmas, we have a real set of anxieties and even uncertainty as a result of the Donald Trump victory. We are unsure what all of this portends after we open the gifts and the MAGA, or #47, takes over the American nation.
There are three packages that we need to pay attention to. We can shake the package and try to intuit its contents. Unfortunately, intuition will not serve us well in our guesswork. We have a host of statements and pronouncements coming from Mar-a-Lago as well as MAGA 1.0 to learn from. I hope we have been paying attention.
#1: Climate change. From “too little too late” to “nothing now or in the future.” The island Pacific has made it clear that climate change, not the strategic competition between China and the United States, is the major existential threat. In international and regional forums, as well as in parliamentary and legislative debates, there is no doubt that climate change, ocean warming, resiliency and loss/damage schemes command much attention.
The Trump candidacy and his previous record think all of this is useless discussion. The 47th president has called climate change a “hoax.” America will dig and look for “liquid gold” and make the United States not just energy-independent but, perhaps, an energy exporter. Energy independence is a campaign slogan rather than a real objective in American political discourse. This was true for both Democrats and Republicans.
But the form of energy that would lead the U.S. to energy independence is quite different. Oil and gas exploration will outpace efforts to develop renewable energy. Since climate change science is a hoax, the U.S. will not participate in international efforts to deal with climate change. Trump pulled out of the Paris Climate Accord during his first year in office in 2017.
The Biden commitment of hundreds of millions for climate change made at two White House Pacific Island Summits will not be in this Christmas package.
Unfortunately, this package will be empty. The initial wrapping in the Biden administration was shiny and promising. But even that was panned by the Pacific Islands as “too little, too late” in the past three years. “Nothing now or in the future” could be used to describe the future American efforts in climate change in the Pacific.
#2: Strategic competition is no longer just about war. This package will be the largest one under the tree. For the past decade, Pacific island leaders have tried to use the China-U.S. geostrategic competition in the island Pacific in various ways. Some have talked about it as an irrelevant diversion to the real existential threats that islands face. They say climate change is number one. Others have attempted to use it to dramatize the importance of the Pacific islands to gain new levels of attention and funding for various projects. Sometimes, this is labelled as “leveraging” the newfound American attention.
The Pacific Pivot during the Obama administration never really got off the ground. The first Trump administration didn’t engage in the conversation about the Pacific Pivot. Consistent with Trump’s overall approach to international relations, America engaged in a series of individual relationships with countries, rather than through alliances or regional organizations. This is likely to emphasize the importance of countries like South Korea, Japan and the Philippines.
The ASEAN and Pacific Islands Forum will be deemphasized as vehicles to extend American influence. MAGA thinks of these as messy groups in which American interests are sidelined. There may be a perfunctory White House Pacific Island Summit during the next administration. It will not result in the same levels of commitment. I seriously doubt that the territories would be invited.
Moreover, the strategic conflict with China will be seen more in economic rather than military terms. When Trump looks out to the Indo-Pacific region, his first inclination is to decry “unfair trade” practices rather than pacing military threats from China. The proposed tariffs and impending trade wars are more likely to occur than kinetic warfare over Taiwan. It is unclear what Trump feels about protecting Taiwan, but it is clear that his “anti-war” inclinations are strong. He isn’t for peace as much as he is for non-involvement. For him, the Ukraine and Taiwan are diversions from attention to real American interests.
These real interests are economic and not ideological. Economic success is a greater motivation than any belief in being a beacon for democratic impulses around the world. For the island Pacific, the strategic competition will likely result in real economic consequences rather than in real, kinetic conflict. This package contains a few yuan, a couple of U.S. hundred-dollar bills, and a complicated series of trade relationships.
#3. Islands are just geographic promontories. Many of us are trying to deal with the Trump victory and impending presidency in various ways. There are multiple reactions depending upon where you live and, of course, whether you supported his candidacy. For islanders, his victory means uncertainty. But come to think of it, that is what it means in most of the U.S. and much of the rest of the world.
It is clear that the islands, especially north of the equator, will go back to being just islands. The Republican platform mentioned the “territories” as “being of vital importance to our national security, and we welcome their greater participation in all aspects of the political process.” This statement included references to the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
Defining the islands as useful only in terms of national security, rather than some overarching American democratic process, has been a consistent reality in the colonial history of the United States. However, rarely is it so boldly stated. There is no perfunctory statement about “self-determination,” only a perspective about the value of these promontories to us. The difference between us and them is unclear. Let me try to add clarity. Those of us in the islands are “them” or the “other” in this statement.
This package contains a Pacific Ocean map with large oceans and dots with little American flag pins. These are the areas where American management is pre-eminent.
There are other surprise packages. The contents of these packages can be similarly deceiving. There is the package of “birthright citizenship.” Although it is aimed at the children of “illegal aliens” for now, it could apply to the children of all non-citizens, including COFA migrants.
There is the missile defense package. This may become the largest package of all, or the smallest. The Republican Party calls for an “iron dome” defense system. #47 has stated that it would be over North America. Guam is not in North America. So many packages and so many surprises. It feels more like Halloween than Christmas.
Dr. Robert Underwood is the former president of the University of Guam and former member of the U.S. House of Representatives. Send feedback to anacletus2010@gmail.com.
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